India’s heat wave breaks a century-old record： people accept ＂baking＂ inspection, and the government looks for coal everywhere
At present, extreme heat is sweeping through most parts of India and Pakistan. Indian and Pakistani officials all said with one voice: "The heat wave is testing the limits of human viability".
According to the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Bureau, the temperature in northern and western India may further climb to 50 degrees Celsius in May. In April, the average maximum temperature in some parts of India has reached the highest value in 122 years.
In fact, it is not news that India experienced high temperature in May before the arrival of the summer monsoon, but it is very abnormal that such an extreme heat wave has appeared since April. However, it never rains but it pours. At this juncture, India’s coal stocks are in a hurry. 70% of India’s electricity comes from coal burning, and the lack of coal almost means power failure.
Apart from the current climatic factors, Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the China-South Asia Cooperation Research Center of Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told the First Financial Reporter that the power shortage is a long-term problem in India. At present, India’s economic activities have recovered after the epidemic, and the power shortage problem has been exposed again. However, the high price of coal and the shortage of electric coal in the international market have made India’s energy supply problem worse.
"the year without spring"
The World Meteorological Organization issued a high temperature warning to India and Pakistan in April. The organization said that the high temperature zone will cover densely populated areas of the two countries, and hundreds of millions of people will be affected.
The Indian Meteorological Bureau reported that in April, the average maximum temperatures in northwest and central India were 35.9 and 37.78 degrees Celsius, respectively, the highest since records began in the past 122 years. In April, the capital New Delhi also had a record of exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for seven consecutive days. Some Indian media called "the capital New Delhi seems to be on fire"!
On May 5th, Indian Prime Minister Modi urged all states and territories to formulate action plans to cope with the high temperature test. He asked all localities to take measures to avoid people’s death caused by high temperature and fire.
High temperature has the most direct impact on agricultural production, especially on wheat, because the main wheat producing areas in India are concentrated in the central and northwest regions where high temperature persists, and are in the critical filling period. Local experts predict that Indian wheat will face an average yield reduction of 15%~25% this year.
India is the second largest wheat producer in the world. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many countries still rely on India’s wheat supply.
However, for natural disasters, Gurvinder Singh, head of the agricultural department of Punjab, a big agricultural state in India, said that there seems to be not many ways to save it. He said: "We don’t have a high-temperature action plan, and there is a gap in planning. Now we can only adapt to all this, and the heat wave is testing the limits of human viability. "
Pakistan is also hit by the heat wave. Sindh province in the southeast climbed to 47 degrees Celsius in daily maximum temperature on April 29th. The Pakistan Meteorological Bureau said that this was the highest temperature recorded in all cities in the northern hemisphere that day.
Recently, the Pakistan Meteorological Bureau also said that in most parts of the country, the daytime temperature may be 5 degrees Celsius to 8 degrees Celsius higher than usual. It warned that in some mountainous areas, unusually high temperatures will accelerate the melting of snow and ice, which may lead to flash floods, and people need to be wary.
Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s climate change minister, said in a statement: "This is the first time that Pakistanis have experienced ‘ The year without spring ’ 。” Meteorologists said that, of course, from a meteorological point of view, Pakistan has not experienced a "year without spring", but it is only affected by the weather system. This year’s spring came earlier and shorter, making it difficult for people to feel it.
Accept the "baking" test
Due to the extreme high temperature, India’s electricity demand hit a record high in April this year, which triggered the most serious power crisis in many years. The government was forced to cut off electricity, resulting in a large-scale power outage throughout India.
In fact, people have long been accustomed to intermittent power outages. India’s power shortage has long been criticized by Indian society, mainly because of insufficient investment in infrastructure. Last October, due to economic recovery and coal shortage, the first round of power crisis broke out in India after the epidemic; Now only half a year has passed, and India has once again fallen into a more severe power supply crisis.
According to a recent survey of more than 21,000 people in 322 regions in India, two-thirds of the families said that they had suffered a sudden power outage recently, and one-third even said that the power outage lasted for more than two hours every day, which was a complete "baking" test for them.
Also subject to the "baking" inspection are Indian companies. Faridabad is a satellite city in the south of New Delhi, the capital of India, and an important manufacturing center in India, covering aviation, automobile, mining and other industries. Sandeep Mall runs a factory in Faridabad with more than 50 machines.
Recently, Ma ‘er is extremely depressed, because the factory faces power outages every day, sometimes as long as 14 hours a day. Mal said that every time there is a power failure, the machine will jam and the semi-finished products being processed will become waste products. Fortunately, his factory is equipped with diesel generators, which can continue to generate electricity, but the electricity cost of diesel generators is three times the price of the power grid.
Mal said that this is the worst power crisis in more than a decade. He said: "This has eroded my competitiveness and thinned my profits. It’s a complete mess and very frustrating. " Officials in Maharashtra, where India’s economic center Mumbai is located, also said that the power shortage may force industrial enterprises to "have to cut production and refuse domestic and foreign orders".
Aditi Nayar, an economist with India’s credit rating agency (ICRA), said: "If the power supply in the industrial sector is reduced, it may delay the recovery of India’s manufacturing industry for at least another quarter."
Affected by high temperature, Pakistan also experienced a power crisis. Recently, Pakistan’s new Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif said through social media that due to energy shortage and poor management, more than 20% of generators are currently out of service, and the government will do its best to solve this problem.
Looking for coal everywhere
Coal-fired power generation accounts for more than 70% of India’s power generation, and behind the current power shortage is coal shortage. India’s Ministry of Coal said that "domestic coal supply is under great pressure", and India’s coal mining and transportation infrastructure can’t keep up with the growing demand.
In order to alleviate the power crisis, India relaxed the environmental protection approval for coal mine expansion to increase coal production. According to a report by the Indian government, the existing coal mines can increase the output by 10% without affecting the environmental assessment; At the same time, the regulations on consulting local residents have also been relaxed.
In the face of the crisis, India had to make some concessions on environmental protection. Liu Zongyi told the First Financial Reporter that coal-fired power is a cheap and stable energy source for India, but in recent years, India has vigorously developed green energy, no longer paying attention to increasing coal production, and has neglected it.
In addition, the Indian government has tried every means to tap the potential production capacity. On May 6th, India launched an emergency bill to restart some coal-based power plants, which have been idle due to financial problems or high international coal prices.
In India, railway is the most important mode of coal transportation. In order to free up capacity, the Indian railway department has decided to stop more than 1000 passenger trains and give priority to ensuring coal transportation in order to alleviate the current situation of coal shortage.
India is a big coal producer and a big coal consumer, and its dependence on foreign countries exceeds 20%. In addition to strengthening domestic coal production and transportation, the Indian government also requires all localities to increase coal imports and increase inventories in the next three years.
India imports about 300 million to 400 million tons of coal every year, mainly from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa. Although India is rich in coal reserves, it is deficient in thermal coal for power generation, with high ash content and low calorific value, which belongs to inferior varieties. Among them, the coal output with calorific value less than 4,800 calories accounts for more than 70%, so it needs to be imported for supplement.
At present, coal prices are soaring in the international market. Standard & Poor’s global general analysis pointed out that the recent geopolitical conflict has disturbed the balance of the global coal market, and the demand in the European market has risen sharply, and the overall market supply and demand are becoming tense.
However, India skillfully used its "neutral" position in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to buy Russian low-priced coal in large quantities when Europe boycotted Russian coal. According to data released by commodity research institute Kpler, in March this year, India imported 1.04 million tons of coal from Russia, setting a new high since January 2020.